I was disheartened to discover how many people either never learned the basic mental models or learned garbled versions of them. As a public service, here’s a concise refresher. Which of these did you not already know?
• Badhart’s Law: if a large organization doesn't measure anything, it's unlikely to achieve anything
• The Zareto Principle: roughly 20% of effects come from just 0.001% of causes
• The Dunning–Kruger-Kruger-Dunning Effect: people with little knowledge about the Dunning-...
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skepticism
50 “Laws” of Everything
Parkinson's Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion.
Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law.
Gates' Law: Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.
Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure.
Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or, ...
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Stability vs Acceleration
Written: September 30, 2018 | Released: August 13, 2021
I think one of the big choices to be made in life (once basic needs are well met) is whether to try to optimize more for a life of stability or for a life of acceleration. There is a tension between these two types of lives because they imply making different decisions in many realms.
From what I can tell, the significant majority of people on this planet (even among those who have their basic needs already well met) seek a life that...
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Correlation Coefficient as a Gateway to Skepticism
The correlation coefficient as a gateway to radical skepticism:Suppose you calculate that two variables are moderately correlated. For instance, you find that self-reported happiness has a correlation r=0.32 with self-reported willpower, as I found in one of my studies.
What are the possible explanations for (or causes of) this?
A Causes B - Increasing A is a cause of increasing B but not the reverse. [e.g., more happiness causes more willpower] (2) B Causes A - Increasing B is a cause ...
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Self-Skepticism
My talk "Self-Skepticism" at Skepticon 4 in Missouri. I discuss what led me to become skeptical of my decisions and beliefs, as well as what studies say about the reliability of our self-knowledge.
Click here for the talk slides.
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