How to spot real expertise

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Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make matters even more confusing, sometimes the fake experts even have very impressive credentials, and ev...
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50 “Laws” of Everything

Parkinson's Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law. Gates' Law: Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or, ...
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