How do we predict high levels of success?

September 12, 2021

Below, I outline 13 approaches to predicting high levels of success with differing levels of complexity, including my own mega model at the bottom. Note: here, I use the term "success" merely in terms of achievement, career success, or high levels of expertise, NOT in terms of happiness, living a good life, morality, having strong social bonds, etc. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be successful in the way this post focuses on. But if you DO want "success" in the sense in...

Difficult truths that are part of being human

March 5, 2021

Here's my list of difficult truths that are part of being human. We can: A. Lie to ourselves about them, B. Avoid thinking about them, or C. Try to accept the parts we can't change and change what we can. If you're in camps A or B, don't read this post! Here are Thirteen Difficult Truths: 1. Irrationality - we humans are not rational, despite the fact that most of us want to believe we are. Our beliefs and behaviors are influenced by nearly-invisible social for...

50 “Laws” of Everything

July 6, 2020

Parkinson's Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law. Gates' Law: Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or, ...