13 metaphors to give the flavor of why sufficiently advanced A.I. could be extremely dangerous

April 2, 2023

1. Suppose a new species evolves on earth with the same intellectual, planning, and coordination abilities relative to us that we have relative to chimps. Chimps are faster and stronger than most humans - why don't they run the show? 2. Suppose aliens show up on earth that are far smarter than the smartest among us at all cognitive tasks. They have specific goals that aren't fully aligned with ours, are completely unconstrained by human morality, and don't value our survival. What happens ne...

Ten Skills Our Civilization Needs

October 10, 2020

Here are ten skills I believe our civilization needs, if we hope to create an amazing world instead of a dumpster fire. 1. Evidence evaluation Converging on a valid consensus about what’s true based on evidence/argument (e.g., being able to converge as a society on questions like "climate change real, how bad will it get if we don't act, and how quickly?"). 2. Coordination Developing and applying mechanisms to avoid collective action problems (e.g., working to make it in nobody’s in...

50 “Laws” of Everything

July 6, 2020

Parkinson's Law: Work expands so as to fill the time available for its completion. Hofstadter's Law: It always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter’s Law. Gates' Law: Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years. Goodhart's Law: When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure. Hanlon's Razor: Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or, ...

Four tiny parables about starting a company

December 22, 2018

TLDR: become a looper of questions to know how to program the machine that will polish the stone while you outlast the jungle. 1. Looping the Question “What don’t I know that I must know?” This Meta Question is your obsession. The answer to that Meta Question is itself a question, and it leads you to create your first data loop (say, conducting a series of interviews with experts). After sucking down much of what it has to teach you, you’re hearing the same answers again and again. Da...