How to spot real expertise

April 23, 2024

Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make matters even more confusing, sometimes the fake experts even have very impressive credentials, and ev...

Human behavior makes more sense when you understand “Anchor Beliefs”

November 21, 2021

Photo by Kris-Mikael Krister on Unsplash

There's an important type of belief most of us have, which we call "Anchor Beliefs." These beliefs are, by definition, those beliefs we hold that are almost impossible to change. To the believer, an Anchor Belief doesn't feel like a mere belief - it feels like an undeniable truth. These beliefs are often too deeply rooted to change, and the cost of giving them up may be extremely high (e.g., questioning the belief might cause you to lose your family, friends, livelihood, or your understand...

Three big reasons we struggle to find the truth

June 3, 2021

As I see it, there are three main causes for our struggles to see the truth on any particular topic: 1. Mimicry: when our in-group promotes falsity that we copy 2. Incentives: when we predict that knowing the truth would feel bad or harm our objectives 3. Complexity: when the truth is hard to figure out Examples: 1. Mimicry • Some are Christians because all their friends and family are, too; some are atheists for the same reason. • Some think that it makes sense to ...

Why is Confirmation Bias So Common?

May 5, 2021

Written: May 5, 2021 | Released: June 18, 2021 People often talk about what a problem "confirmation bias" is. But we rarely discuss what causes so many of us to search for information in a biased way. Let's explore some of the forces: 1. Echo chambers: our routine sources of information tend to support our worldview. Much of this is due to social ties (we tend to talk to people who are similar to us in age, geography, religion, etc.) We also trust news sources more if they share o...

Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists

April 23, 2021

There is an important division between people who want to improve the world that few seem to be aware of. Inspired by Julia Galef's new book (The Scout Mindset), I'll call this division: Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists. 1. Soldier Altruists think it's obvious how to improve the world and that we just need to execute those obvious steps. They see the barriers to a better world as: (i) not enough people taking action (e.g., due to ignorance, selfishness, or propaganda), and ...