Demystifying p-values

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There is a tremendous amount of confusion around what a p-value actually is, despite their widespread use in science. Here is my attempt to explain the concept of p-values concisely and clearly (including why they are useful and what often goes wrong with them). — What's a p-value? — If you run a study, then (all else equal, aside from rare edge cases) the lower the p-value, the lower the chance that your results are due to random chance or luck. More precisely: a p-value is the probab...
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Human behavior makes more sense when you understand “Anchor Beliefs”

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There's an important type of belief most of us have, which we call "Anchor Beliefs." These beliefs are, by definition, those beliefs we hold that are almost impossible to change. To the believer, an Anchor Belief doesn't feel like a mere belief - it feels like an undeniable truth. These beliefs are often too deeply rooted to change, and the cost of giving them up may be extremely high (e.g., questioning the belief might cause you to lose your family, friends, livelihood, or your understand...
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The many ways to make inferences

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There are a LOT of ways to make inferences. Many more, I think, than is generally realized. And they all have their weaknesses. You can make inferences using… (1) Deduction: As a consequence of the definition of X and Y, if X then Y. X applies to this case. Therefore Y. “Plato is a man, and all men are mortal; therefore Plato is mortal.” “For any number that is an integer, there exists another integer greater than that number. 1,000,000 is an integer. So there exists an in...
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