How do we predict high levels of success?

September 12, 2021

Below, I outline 13 approaches to predicting high levels of success with differing levels of complexity, including my own mega model at the bottom. Note: here, I use the term "success" merely in terms of achievement, career success, or high levels of expertise, NOT in terms of happiness, living a good life, morality, having strong social bonds, etc. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be successful in the way this post focuses on. But if you DO want "success" in the sense in...

What level of societal risk is too much to dismiss?

August 1, 2017

Suppose that if we humans keep doing an activity, then we'll have at least a P percent chance of causing the most horrible series of events so far in human history within 50 years. How big does P need to be before it's irresponsible to say, "Well, the horrible event is unlikely to happen, so let's not worry about it"? 50% (1 in 2)?5% (1 in 20)?1% (1 in 100)?0.1% (1 in 1,000)?0.01%? (1 in 10,000)?0.001%? (1 in 100,000)?0.0001%? (1 in 1,000,000)? To me, it seems bizarre to dismiss a thre...