Reflecting on your life principles

December 31, 2022

When was the last time you reflected on your life principles? If you haven't reflected on them recently, why not schedule a time to do so? Principles act as shortcuts to help you make choices that you'll be satisfied with, and they serve as beacons to guide you toward a better version of yourself. They also serve as an encapsulation of important lessons you've learned throughout your life. We recently released an interactive module to help you determine your principles. It also makes it e...

Demystifying p-values

December 31, 2022

There is a tremendous amount of confusion around what a p-value actually is, despite their widespread use in science. Here is my attempt to explain the concept of p-values concisely and clearly (including why they are useful and what often goes wrong with them). — What's a p-value? — If you run a study, then (all else equal, aside from rare edge cases) the lower the p-value, the lower the chance that your results are due to random chance or luck. More precisely: a p-value is the probab...

A step-by-step process to get full text access to most scientific and academic articles and papers

December 21, 2022

People often struggle to find the full-text of scientific papers. Here is a step-by-step guide to finding full PDFs of these articles. Be sure to follow all rules, laws, and regulations in your jurisdiction, and be sure you are aware of potential risks before using any of these methods. Method 1: Search the title at http://scholar.google.com. If a pdf or full-text is available, it will show up as a link on the right-hand side of the search result. This works to find full text f...

Importance Hacking: a major (yet rarely-discussed) problem in science

December 19, 2022

I first published this post on the Clearer Thinking blog on December 19, 2022, and first cross-posted it to this site on January 21, 2023. You have probably heard the phrase "replication crisis." It refers to the grim fact that, in a number of fields of science, when researchers attempt to replicate previously published studies, they fairly often don't get the same results. The magnitude of the problem depends on the field, but in psychology, it seems that something like 40% of studies i...

Four forces that tend to promote or impede ethical behavior

December 9, 2022

In my view, there are "four forces" behind why humans avoid unethical behavior. I think understanding these forces can be useful when seeking to explain people's actions (especially when someone does something truly terrible). Ethical force 1: Emotion The vast majority of us experience empathy and compassion. We tend to feel happy when seeing others happy and feel bad when we see others suffering. These feelings guide our ethical behavior at an interpersonal level, causing proso...

Nine ways that text-generating AIs will probably change the world in the next ten years

December 3, 2022

Image generated by the A.I. DALL·E 2 using the prompt "A robot hand drawing itself by MC Escher"

Note (March 26, 2023): I first wrote this list on December 3, 2022. Since then, GPT-4 has come out, and several of the points in this list are closer to happening. For example, point #2 is partly true already, thanks to Bing Chat (which runs on GPT-4). Here are nine ways I think that AIs that generate text (like GPT-3) will have a >50% chance of changing the world for the better and worse in the next ten years: #1: The internet will get flooded with AI-written articles, and...

Eight methods to make conversations with acquaintances more interesting

December 3, 2022

If you're like me and really dislike small talk, you may find these ideas useful. (1) If you end up talking about their work, ask what they (i) most like about it and (ii) find most challenging about it. (2) If they end up asking about your work, try to explain what you do in a way you've never experimented with before. Example: if you're a programmer, maybe you'll say your job is to convert ambiguous human goals to instructions that are so precise a computer can follow them. ...

How can we look at the same dataset and come to wildly different conclusions?

November 30, 2022

Recently, a study came out where 73 research teams independently analyzed the same data, all trying to test the same hypothesis. Seventy-one of the teams came up with numerical results across a total of 1,253 models. Across these 1,253 different ways of looking at the data, about 58% showed no effect, 17% showed a positive effect, and 25% showed a negative effect. But that's not even the oddest part. The oddest part is that despite a heroic attempt to do so, the study authors failed to...

Life, death, and a squirrel

November 16, 2022

Cropped version of a photo by Rhododendrites ( Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license) https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Squirrel_in_CP_%2840494%29.jpg

One time when I was walking in Central Park, a branch fell from a really tall tree, perhaps a 50- to 60-foot drop. A squirrel was on that branch when it fell, and the branch hit the cement path with a loud thud. The squirrel lay there on its back, quivering. I knew it was totally screwed. Its back was probably broken, but it was clearly still alive. "Fuck," I thought to myself. "Look at how much it's suffering. Should I kill it to put it out of its misery?" I stood there pondering t...

Awkwardly Embracing Awkwardness

September 25, 2022

All else being equal, it's good to avoid creating awkwardness. But too much awkwardness-avoidance can be harmful. Lately, I've been trying to accept a bit more awkwardness (rather than reflexively avoiding it) in cases where I think doing so can produce value. Here are four areas where I'm leaning more into awkwardness: 1. When asked for feedback on a project (and I think it will fail), I'm usually tempted to focus on what I like about it. I've now become more likely ...