The many possible causes of large, positive changes in the world

February 24, 2018

I’ve noticed that people start with different assumptions about what usually causes large, positive changes in the world. It is rare for us to directly address these differences in worldview, even though they may contribute to difficulties seeing eye-to-eye on how we can make things better. For instance, I think some people believe that large, positive change usually comes about due to one or more of the following: (1) Progress - technological and scientific advancement causing a ris...

What level of societal risk is too much to dismiss?

August 1, 2017

Suppose that if we humans keep doing an activity, then we'll have at least a P percent chance of causing the most horrible series of events so far in human history within 50 years. How big does P need to be before it's irresponsible to say, "Well, the horrible event is unlikely to happen, so let's not worry about it"? 50% (1 in 2)?5% (1 in 20)?1% (1 in 100)?0.1% (1 in 1,000)?0.01%? (1 in 10,000)?0.001%? (1 in 100,000)?0.0001%? (1 in 1,000,000)? To me, it seems bizarre to dismiss a thre...