The many possible causes of large, positive changes in the world

February 24, 2018

I’ve noticed that people start with different assumptions about what usually causes large, positive changes in the world. It is rare for us to directly address these differences in worldview, even though they may contribute to difficulties seeing eye-to-eye on how we can make things better. For instance, I think some people believe that large, positive change usually comes about due to one or more of the following: (1) Progress - technological and scientific advancement causing a ris...

A simple way to estimate confidence intervals that most people don’t know about that can also be used to estimate sample sizes or as an alternative to power calculations

April 25, 2017

Whenever you are looking at an average of something, it's useful to ask yourself, "plus or minus what?" Averages nearly always have uncertainty associated with them because they are calculated based on a sample of a larger population. For instance, if you want to know how happy people in the U.S. are, on average, you could try to figure it out by asking them, "On a scale from 0 to 100, how happy are you?" But of course, you can't pose that question to everyone in the U.S., so instead, ...

Novel Ways of Carving Up Knowledge

July 26, 2011

Normally we divide up the elements of knowledge into the traditional categories of history, literature, math, physics, chemistry, psychology, fine arts, and so forth. We are so used to these divisions that it may not even occur to us that knowledge can be split in plenty of other ways. But imagine, for instance, a school that offered the following subjects: Making Observations Formulating Theories Making Predictions Testing Predictions Developing Happiness Making Observations coul...

Should We Trust Our Gut? – The Idealization of Intuition and Instinct

December 30, 2009

This is an old essay written in December 2009. I'm posting it on this site (with minor edits) today, January 13, 2023. It is common to hear advice that amounts to "going with your gut," "trusting your instincts," or "following your intuition." But these suggestions seem to indicate that the answers we arrive at through careful thought are sometimes (or perhaps usually) inferior to our immediate reactions. Consider the following representative quotes: Keep the faith, don't lose yo...

Genesis according to science: The Empirical Creation Story

February 8, 2009

Image credit: NASA, ESA, CSA, and STScI https://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/2022/nasa-s-webb-delivers-deepest-infrared-image-of-universe-yet

This was first written on February 8, 2009. I put it up on this site on February 10, 2023. 1 In the beginning, the big bang created the heavens. 1 In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth. 2 The universe was formless and infinitesimal. Plasma hotter than a thousand suns permeated the explosively expanding fabric of space. 2 And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of t...