The many ways to make inferences

October 7, 2018

There are a LOT of ways to make inferences. Many more, I think, than is generally realized. And they all have their weaknesses. You can make inferences using… (1) Deduction: As a consequence of the definition of X and Y, if X then Y. X applies to this case. Therefore Y. “Plato is a man, and all men are mortal; therefore Plato is mortal.” “For any number that is an integer, there exists another integer greater than that number. 1,000,000 is an integer. So there exists an in...

What If You HAD To Do It?

April 26, 2018

A thought experiment about what you'd be truly capable of doing, if you had no choice: Think of something you value that: A. Multiple other people you know are capable of achieving, but that… B. You assume you would not be capable of achieving, even though… C. You have never actually tried to do this thing well before. Now, suppose for a moment that you have no choice but to do the thing. That is, everything you care about in the world will be destroyed if you do not achieve it i...

Religions are endlessly fracturing

August 3, 2017

One day, a number of years ago, I decided to try to diagram out all of the schisms and splits I could identify in the Abrahamic religions (which include Judaism, Christianity, Islam, and Mormonism). Click here for a high resolution version of this image. As you can see in the diagram, there were well over 60 Abrahamic religious splits, each of which changed one form of religion into another. Since I made the diagram quickly and used Wikipedia as the source for a lot of it, I'm sure i...