Can you tell when you’re in the middle of a financial bubble?

December 8, 2017

Valuation bubbles seem obvious after they collapse or have a big correction (in fact, they often seem insane in retrospect), but is it possible to tell when you're inside one? If it is obvious to most investors that there is a bubble, presumably, that bubble would be likely to burst quickly. So, we shouldn't expect it to be particularly obvious from the inside of a bubble that one is currently happening. That being said, here are some signs that I think tend to be predictive of bubbles (t...

Psychological Gulfs

December 3, 2017

Here's my list common differences between people that are so large that those at the extreme opposite ends of the trait (say, the 5th percentile vs. 95th percentile) have a very hard time understanding and relating to each other. What would you add to the list, and what am I getting wrong? Note: each of these examples is supposed to illustrate a somewhat extreme form of each trait for clarity purposes. Most people who have or lack each trait don’t have a form that is as extreme as is shown i...

20 Super-Helpful Life Hacks

November 27, 2017

Part 1: LEARNING HACKS 1. Crowdsource improvements to ideas: when you come up with a new idea or are mulling over a complex idea and still find yourself uncertain or confused about it, post to Facebook explaining the idea, and explain that you're curious to hear what other people think about it, or whether they agree or disagree and why, or what their own theories about it are. Crowdsourcing the perspectives of others can be a fantastic way to improve your own understanding and to ge...

Ways to develop new hypotheses about human psychology

November 16, 2017

How would you go about building improved models of human psychology so that you can better help people? It might seem nearly impossible at first, but data about psychology is all around us, and there are numerous approaches you could take to discover new insights. Here are 24 different methods you could use to better understand the way humans work. In each case, I use "trying to figure out new things about post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD)" as an example. What techniques am I leaving out...

Subtle Introspection

November 14, 2017

Here are ten subtle things it's easy to miss about yourself that you may find it valuable to pay mindful attention to: Your natural posture when sitting at your computer → this may affect how your body feels in 20 yearsWhere emotions manifest in your body (e.g., I feel anxiety in my chest and annoyance as a twinge in my face) → greater awareness here may help you more quickly and accurately identify your emotions.The clothing you feel your best and worst in → this may lead you to dress in a ...

16 Potentially-Dystopian Utopias

November 7, 2017

Suppose that humans one day (whether 20 or 200 years from now) create far more advanced technology, with power sufficient to reshape what the world is like, and even to determine what humanity becomes. If that comes to pass, we’re going to be in trouble unless we also reach a better understanding of our own values and resolve the inconsistencies in them. We don’t have sufficient clarity on our values to say what the ideal world looks like. So if we ever have the power to truly redesign the w...

Cool Reboot for More Energy

November 5, 2017

Do you tend to feel tired or 'out of it' midday? Do you not want to waste the rest of the day feeling like garbage? Try a Cool Reboot! It layers together six different techniques for feeling awake and only takes 30 minutes. Ingredients (all optional, skip any that you can't do now or don't like): - a very caffeinated beverage - a timer with an alarm (e.g., on your phone or alarm clock) - earplugs and/or eye mask - a bed or couch - a bright source of light (e.g., a S.A.D....

Ten Useful Reframings

November 1, 2017

1. I just made a huge mistake; what on earth is wrong with me? How the hell could I be so stupid? Reframe: I'll learn so much from this mistake that I'm never going to make one like it again. 2. This bag is too heavy, I have to walk way too far Reframe: Exercise is healthy, and people pay trainers to get them to lift heavy stuff or go on the treadmill, this is just exercise with the world as my trainer! 3. This train/bus/line is taking forever, what a pain! Reframe:...

Who perpetrates sexual harassment and sexual assault, and who are the victims?

October 22, 2017

This piece was first written in 2017, and first appeared on my website on April 30, 2026. This essay is the second in a series examining sexual harassment and assault. The first essay can be read here, which also includes more information about the study participants. Sexual harassment and assault occur far too often. In this post, I explore what the predictors are of being a perpetrator and being a victim. In particular, I use linear regression to predict whether each person is a ...

13 Ways Some Companies Make Money While Causing Harm

October 17, 2017

I’ve often heard it said that if people buy the product a company or startup is selling, then the company must be creating value in the world. After all, why would someone buy a product if it were not creating value? It would be really nice if this were a valid argument (since then more units sold means more societal benefit). Unfortunately, it’s not. I like entrepreneurship a great deal and think on net it has added huge amounts of benefit to the world. In fact, I'm an entrepreneur myself. But...