You’re right about everything

July 1, 2025

You're absolutely right. About all of it. The big stuff, the weird stuff, the "nobody-gets-this" stuff. Every belief you hold is, against all odds, completely correct. I know I said before that you were wrong, but it was I who was wrong! Here's proof: 1) Unlike others, you're self-aware. You know your limits, so - unlike other people - when you know something, it's true. You weighed the evidence they ignored and saw angles they missed. Corrected your own biases. Your unique perspective revea...

Keeping Ideas at a Distance Using Probability

August 11, 2011

We often talk about ideas by using phrases like "I believe X." But what do we mean when we say that we "believe" in an idea? Do we mean that we have 100% confidence that the idea is true? Let's hope not. Even statements that we all would say we very strongly believe, like "tomorrow the sun will rise", and "I am not a robot" we should not assign 100% probability to. While we can be very, very, very certain that the sun will rise tomorrow and that our brains are not computers, we cannot be abso...