1. Tautologies are true by definition, ’cause tautologies are true by definition.

2. Induction worked in the past, so it probably will in the future.

3. If deduction solves your problem, and you want it solved, then you’ll want to use deduction!

4. If you thought Bayesianism had 3:1 odds, and you think this sentence is 2x more likely if Bayesianism than if not Bayesianism, now you should give it 6:1 odds.

5. If frequentism wasn’t true, you’d have a low probability of reading a sentence as extreme as this one.

6. You should trust your gut because your gut is telling you to trust it.

7. The theory that Occam’s Razor is true is simpler than the theory that it is false.

8. The best explanation for why humans use abduction often is because it is useful for helping them figure out the truth.

If you liked this piece, you may also like Twelve Recursive Explanations.

This piece was first written on November 26, 2020, and first appeared on this site on August 12, 2022.