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	<title>recursion &#8211; Spencer Greenberg</title>
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	<title>recursion &#8211; Spencer Greenberg</title>
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		<title>Twelve Recursive Explanations</title>
		<link>https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2021/03/twelve-recursive-explanations/</link>
					<comments>https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2021/03/twelve-recursive-explanations/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 21 Mar 2021 17:37:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Essays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[anthropics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baader-Meinhof effect]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[common knowledge]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[explore-exploit tradeoff]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inferential distance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[lists of explanations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[meta]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[opportunity costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Overton Window]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pareto Optimality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[rationality]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recursion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[satire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Schelling points]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Sturgeon&#039;s Law]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sunk cost fallacy]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.spencergreenberg.com/?p=2684</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[If the Overton Window were not inside of itself, you&#8217;d think I was crazy for writing this. Is it just me, or has the Baader-Meinhof effect been popping up all over the place ever since I learned about it? It&#8217;s hard to justify learning about opportunity costs when there are so many other things you [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<ol class="wp-block-list"><li>If the Overton Window were not inside of itself, you&#8217;d think I was crazy for writing this.</li><li>Is it just me, or has the Baader-Meinhof effect been popping up all over the place ever since I learned about it?</li><li>It&#8217;s hard to justify learning about opportunity costs when there are so many other things you could be doing with that time.</li><li>I don&#8217;t think the idea of being Pareto Optimal has made anyone better off without making at least one person worse off.</li><li>What can we infer from the fact that we find ourselves living in a world where we&#8217;ve invented the idea of &#8220;Anthropics&#8221;?</li><li>Everyone knows that everyone knows that everyone knows that everyone knows (and so on) what common knowledge is.</li><li>Ninety percent of explanations of Sturgeon&#8217;s Law are crap.</li><li>I would teach you about Inferential Distance, but it would take too long to explain it to you.</li><li>Let&#8217;s meet at the place where you think that I think that you think that I think that you think is a good place to discuss Schelling Points.</li><li>If you think this sentence is meta, you&#8217;re mistaken; it is one level higher than that.</li><li>You should use some of your time learning about new ideas, like the explore-exploit tradeoff, and the rest of your time applying ideas you already know well.</li><li>I wasn&#8217;t going to include this explanation of the sunk cost fallacy because it&#8217;s obviously bad, but at this point, I&#8217;ve already invested time into it.</li></ol>



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<p>If you liked this piece, you may also like <a href="https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2020/07/50-laws-of-everything/">50 “Laws” of Everything</a>.</p>



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<p><em>This piece was first written on March 21, 2021, and first appeared on this site on March 18, 2022.</em></p>
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		<post-id xmlns="com-wordpress:feed-additions:1">2684</post-id>	</item>
		<item>
		<title>These epistemic methods really want you to trust them</title>
		<link>https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2020/11/these-epistemic-methods-really-want-you-to-trust-them/</link>
					<comments>https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2020/11/these-epistemic-methods-really-want-you-to-trust-them/#respond</comments>
		
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Admin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Nov 2020 01:50:00 +0000</pubDate>
				<category><![CDATA[Essays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[circular reasoning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[circularity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[epistemics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[induction]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recursion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recursive]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tautology]]></category>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">https://www.spencergreenberg.com/?p=2851</guid>

					<description><![CDATA[These epistemic methods really want you to trust them. Each tries to prove itself to you: 1. Tautologies are true by definition, &#8217;cause tautologies are true by definition. 😎 2. Induction worked in the past, so it probably will in the future. 😉 3. If deduction solves your problem, and you want it solved, then [&#8230;]]]></description>
										<content:encoded><![CDATA[
<p>These epistemic methods really want you to trust them. Each tries to prove itself to you: </p>



<p><strong>1. </strong><em><strong>Tautologies</strong> </em>are true by definition, &#8217;cause tautologies are true by definition. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f60e.png" alt="😎" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" />  </p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>2. <em>Induction</em></strong> worked in the past, so it probably will in the future. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f609.png" alt="😉" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>3.</strong> If <strong><em>deduction</em></strong> solves your problem, and you want it solved, then you&#8217;ll want to use deduction! <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f60a.png" alt="😊" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>4.</strong> If you thought <strong><em>Bayesianism</em></strong> had 3:1 odds, and you think this sentence is 2x more likely if Bayesianism than if not Bayesianism, now you should give it 6:1 odds. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f920.png" alt="🤠" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>5.</strong> If <strong><em>frequentism</em></strong> wasn&#8217;t true, you&#8217;d have a low probability of reading a sentence as extreme as this one. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f913.png" alt="🤓" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>6.  </strong>You should<strong> <em>trust your gut</em> </strong>because your gut is telling you to trust it. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f618.png" alt="😘" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>7. </strong>The theory that <strong><em>Occam&#8217;s Razor</em></strong> is true is simpler than the theory that it is false. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f914.png" alt="🤔" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



<p></p>



<p><strong>8.</strong> The best explanation for why humans use <strong><em>abduction</em></strong> often is because it is useful for helping them figure out the truth. <img src="https://s.w.org/images/core/emoji/17.0.2/72x72/1f9d0.png" alt="🧐" class="wp-smiley" style="height: 1em; max-height: 1em;" /></p>



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<p><em>If you liked this piece, you may also like <a href="https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2021/03/twelve-recursive-explanations/">Twelve Recursive Explanations</a>.</em></p>



<hr class="wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity"/>



<p><em>This piece was first written on November 26, 2020, and first appeared on this site on August 12, 2022.</em></p>



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