Can you tell when you’re in the middle of a financial bubble?

Valuation bubbles seem obvious after they collapse or have a big correction (in fact, they often seem insane in retrospect), but is it possible to tell when you're inside one? If it is obvious to most investors that there is a bubble, presumably, that bubble would be likely to burst quickly. So, we shouldn't expect it to be particularly obvious from the inside of a bubble that one is currently happening. That being said, here are some signs that I think tend to be predictive of bubbles (t...
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Obvious Defaults Perform The Best

It's surprising how often, in highly complex domains where we are trying to figure out what to do, an obvious or simple default can perform extremely well. This is sometimes even true when the defaults are clearly not optimal. Here are simple defaults in four complex domains that can be surprisingly hard to outperform: 1. Charity: give money to the poorest non-drug addicted people you can find, and let them do whatever they want with the money. GiveWell, which has spent yea...
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