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		<title>50 &#8220;Laws&#8221; of Everything</title>
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					<description><![CDATA[Written: July 6, 2020 &#124; Released: August 27, 2021 (1) Parkinson&#8217;s: work expands to fill the time available for its completion(2) Hofstadter&#8217;s: it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter&#8217;s Law(3) Gates&#8217;s: most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in [&#8230;]]]></description>
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<p><em>Written: July 6, 2020 | Released: August 27, 2021</em><br></p>



<p><strong>(1) Parkinson&#8217;s: </strong>work expands to fill the time available for its completion<br><strong>(2) Hofstadter&#8217;s:</strong> it always takes longer than you expect, even when you take into account Hofstadter&#8217;s Law<br><strong>(3) Gates&#8217;s:</strong> most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years<br><strong>(4) Goodhart&#8217;s: </strong>when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure<br><strong>(5) Hanlon&#8217;s: </strong>never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity (or, don&#8217;t invoke conspiracy when ignorance and incompetence suffice, as conspiracy implies intelligence)<br><strong>(6) Acton&#8217;s: </strong>power tends to corrupt, and absolute power corrupts absolutely<br><strong>(7) Amara&#8217;s: </strong>we tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run<br><strong>(8) Benford&#8217;s:</strong> in a diverse collection of unrelated statistics, a given statistic has roughly a 30% chance of starting with the digit 1<br><strong>(9)</strong> <strong>Betteridge&#8217;s: </strong>any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered with the word &#8216;no&#8217;<br><strong>(10) Brooks&#8217;s: </strong>adding manpower to a late software project makes it later<br><strong>(11) Chesterson&#8217;s:</strong> reforms should not be made until the reasoning behind the existing state of affairs is understood<br><strong>(12)</strong> <strong>Claasen&#8217;s:</strong> usefulness = log(technology)<br><strong>(13) Clarke&#8217;s: </strong>when a distinguished elderly scientist states that something is possible, they are almost certainly right, but when they state something is impossible, they are probably wrong<br><strong>(14)</strong> <strong>Cromwell&#8217;s:</strong> nothing but logical impossibilities have a prior probability of 0 or 1<br><strong>(15) Cunningham&#8217;s: </strong>the best way to get the right answer on the Internet is not to ask a question; it&#8217;s to post the wrong answer<br><strong>(16) Doctorow&#8217;s: </strong>when someone puts a lock on a thing you own, against your wishes, and doesn&#8217;t give you the key, they&#8217;re not doing it for your benefit<br><strong>(17) Moore&#8217;s: </strong>computation per dollar grows exponentially (or: number of transistors per circuit doubles roughly every 24 months)<br><strong>(18) Eroom&#8217;s: </strong>drug discovery is becoming slower and more expensive over time, despite improvements in technology<br><strong>(19) Gell-Mann&#8217;s:</strong> you&#8217;ll believe articles outside your area of expertise, even after acknowledging that neighboring articles in your area of expertise are completely wrong<br><strong>(20) Gibson&#8217;s: </strong>for each PhD (to use as an expert witness for one side), there exists an equal and opposite PhD<br><strong>(21) Godwin&#8217;s: </strong>as an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one<br><strong>(22) Miller&#8217;s: </strong>to understand what another person is saying, you must assume that it is true and try to imagine what it could be true of<br><strong>(23) Greenspun&#8217;s: </strong>any sufficiently complicated C program contains an ad hoc, informally specified, bug-ridden, slow implementation of half of Common Lisp<br><strong>(24) Hebb&#8217;s: </strong>neurons that fire together wire together<br><strong>(25) Hubble&#8217;s: </strong>galaxies recede from an observer at a rate proportional to their distance to that observer<br><strong>(26) Hume&#8217;s: </strong>normative statements (about what&#8217;s moral/immoral) cannot be deduced exclusively from descriptive statements<br><strong>(27) Humphrey&#8217;s: </strong>conscious attention to a task normally performed automatically can impair its performance<br><strong>(28) Kranzberg&#8217;s:</strong> technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral<br><strong>(29) Lamarck&#8217;s:</strong> use it or lose it (evolutionarily speaking, but also in the brain)<br><strong>(30) Lewis&#8217;s:</strong> the comments you&#8217;ll inevitably find on any article about feminism justify feminism<br><strong>(31) Littlewood&#8217;s: </strong>individuals can expect miracles to happen to them, at the rate of about one per month<br><strong>(32) Maes–Garreau&#8217;s: </strong>favorable predictions about future technology will fall at the latest possible date they can come true and still remain in the lifetime of the predictor<br><strong>(33) Metcalfe&#8217;s:</strong> the value of a networked system grows as approximately the square of the number of users of the system<br><strong>(34) Morley-Souter&#8217;s:</strong> there is porn of it (no exceptions)<br><strong>(35) Dunbar&#8217;s:</strong> most people can&#8217;t maintain stable social relationships with more than 150 people<br><strong>(36) Murphy&#8217;s:</strong> anything that can go wrong will go wrong<br><strong>(37) Alder&#8217;s:</strong> what cannot be settled by experiment (at least in principle) is not worth debating<br><strong>(38) O&#8217;Sullivan&#8217;s:</strong> all organizations that are not explicitly right-wing will over time become left-wing<br><strong>(39) Pareto&#8217;s: </strong>for many phenomena, 80% of consequences stem from 20% of the causes (or: most of the effects are produced by just a few of the causes)<br><strong>(40) Peter&#8217;s:</strong> in a hierarchy, every employee tends to be promoted to his level of incompetence<br><strong>(41) Pourenelle&#8217;s: </strong>in bureaucracy, those devoted to the bureaucracy tend to gain and keep control, while those devoted to the goals they are supposed to be achieving tend to lose influence<br><strong>(42) Poisson&#8217;s: </strong>for independent random variables with a common distribution, the average of these tends to the true mean as sample size increases<br><strong>(43) Putt&#8217;s: </strong>technology is dominated by two types of people; those who understand what they do not manage and those who manage what they do not understand<br><strong>(44) Rosenthal&#8217;s: </strong>high expectations lead to an increase in performance; low expectations lead to a decrease in performance<br><strong>(45) Schneier&#8217;s:</strong> any person can invent a security system so clever that she or he can&#8217;t think of how to break it<br><strong>(46) Shermer&#8217;s: </strong>any sufficiently advanced extraterrestrial intelligence is indistinguishable from God<br><strong>(47) Zipf&#8217;s: </strong>the frequency of use of the nth-most-frequently-used word in any natural language is approximately inversely proportional to n (few words are used often; most are used rarely)<br><strong>(48) Wirth&#8217;s: </strong>software gets slower more quickly than hardware gets faster<br><strong>(49) Sturgeon&#8217;s: </strong>ninety percent of everything is crud<br><strong>(50) Stigler&#8217;s: </strong>no discovery is named after its original discoverer, including this one</p>



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<p>If you liked this piece, you may also like <a href="https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2021/03/twelve-recursive-explanations/">Twelve Recursive Explanations</a>.</p>



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