Cross-posted on the Clearer Thinking blog. Travis Manuel helped to edit and improve this post.  People like to think of things as "good" or "bad," such as: Trans fats are bad for you, and broccoli is good for you. Lethargy is bad, but exercise is good. Being cowardly is bad, and having courage is good. A problem with putting something in the "good" bucket of your mind, thoug...

Here's a misery-filled dynamic that I believe commonly plays out regarding small observed differences between groups: (1) Two groups have a small (but meaningful) difference in their average value of some trait, with heavily overlapping distributions. (2) Some people ("Oversimplifiers") observe this difference (in their everyday life or media reports) and turn this small average difference ...

Gödel's incomplete theorems are famously profound, strange, and interesting pieces of math. But it's hard to understand them, and especially hard to understand why they are true. I've never been quite satisfied with the explanations I've seen for the general public, so I wanted to take a crack at explaining what these theorems say and give a flavor of why they hold. See what you think: Inc...

There is something very strange about the art world, which, I think, has to do with art stemming from four different motivations that often come into tension with each other.  More specifically, I suspect that art is created mainly for four reasons: 1) Urge: many artists seem to have a compulsion to create (sometimes, to create oddly specific things). They make art to satisfy this...

As you may know, Sam Bankman-Fried ("SBF") was convicted of seven counts of fraud and conspiracy. He now faces the potential of more than 100 years in prison. I've been trying to figure out how someone who appears to believe deeply in the principles of effective altruism ("EA") could do what SBF did. It has been no surprise to me to see that the actions he was convicted of are nearly universal...

Imagine you lived in a universe where whatever you give your attention to gets drawn to you. So, if you pay attention to cute dogs on the street, you'll soon be followed by cute dogs all the time. And if you pay attention to the angry guy muttering to himself, soon there will be angry mutterers all around you. This is similar to what new age spiritualism calls the Law of Attraction ("you attract ...

Coauthored with the Clearer Thinking team and cross-posted from the Clearer Thinking blog. We recently conducted qualitative research by crowd-sourcing over 100 open-ended responses to the question: "What signs do you look for that help you identify people who are likely to be untrustworthy or who are likely to hurt you if they become your close friend or partner?" We thought t...

I've done a bunch of experimentation with giving permanent custom instructions to ChatGPT/GPT-4. Below, I've included the set of custom instructions that seem to work the best for me. Feel free to use these instructions if you find them helpful: - In your responses, channel the wisdom of the greatest minds that have ever lived, like [*list the people here whose wisdom you'd like ChatGP...

People often talk about how women are attracted to "bad guys" and don't actually like the "nice guys," or they ask, "Why do girls like bad boys?" or "Why do girls like mean guys?" In my opinion, these views are based on misunderstandings of what is attractive. It's definitely true that some women are attracted to traits like narcissism, callousness, and manipulativeness (and some unusual women...

Some remarkable things I suspect are true of nearly all adults:  1) We each hold some beliefs that are almost totally non-responsive to evidence involving some combination of our identity (who we are), our group, the nature of reality (e.g., God), or the nature of what’s good. Examples: • Many have an unshakable belief that they are good even as they harm the world (or believe they’re in...