What does it mean to believe? We often say things like "I believe..." and "they think that..." But what do we really mean by a "belief"? It's notoriously tricky to define. For starters, we sometimes think of beliefs in binaries (true vs. false) and other times in probabilities (a 90% chance of coming true). We sometimes would be willing to bet on our beliefs ("I'll bet you $100 that New ...

This is a cross-post from ClearerThinking.org from October 6, 2020. Thanks go to Hunter Muir for editing. The piece was updated on December 14, 2022, and was cross-posted on this website on February 3, 2024. Many of us might be feeling bad about life at the moment. One approach that may improve your mood is shifting your psychological "baseline" of what you view as normal to reflect the re...

A "deepity" (a term first used by Daniel Dennett) is an ambiguous statement with two meanings: 1. one is profound (but probably false or nonsense) 2. the other meaning is trivial or obvious (but true) These paired meanings can trick our brains into thinking that the idea is both profound and true: we experience the profoundness of one meaning while experiencing the truth of the other mea...

When trying new things, what we like (or benefit from) most is usually familiar to us, yet somehow also distinct. 1. Music: we prefer songs that are similar to others we like but that feel novel. If a song is too similar to what we know, then it's derivative or boring (like listening to the same music on loop), but if it's too novel, it is usually unappealing or dissonant. Music from other cul...

Written: September 17, 2020 | Released: August 20, 2021 The "Responsibility Mindset" is one of the most powerful perspectives I know of. It's the difference between: 1. "The ball wasn't on my side of the court, so I didn't go for it," and2. "Clearly, nobody else was going to be able to hit the ball in time, so I ran for it." 1. "This party is boring," and2. "Who wants to dance with me...

Change my mind: I currently think that there are only three big potential strategies for effectively preventing substantial human-caused climate change in the next 40 years. Climate Strategy 1: Government Collaboration If we collaborated, China, the U.S., India, and Europe could engage in substantial climate emission regulation (e.g., by taxing carbon, using cap-and-trade systems, setti...

The rules of evolution are simple: (1) if a trait makes survival or breeding more likely, then that trait will tend to survive in the long term by being passed down the generations. (2) Gene mutation and gene mixing create new traits, which naturally vary in how much they promote survival. Yet, the consequences of these simple rules are profound. Various facets of the world are hard to underst...

Should you become an entrepreneur? Here's the honest truth (as I see it). 1. Autonomy Pro: you're the boss and decide what to do. Con: you HAVE to always decide what to do. There will be a huge array of options at any given moment, and you'll never know for sure which to work on. You can seek advice, but ultimately YOU are the one who must decide. 2. Lifestyle Pro: since yo...

I've been coming to think that the following hypothesis may be true about America: Increasingly, people in the U.S. are concluding that society is really F'd up. But the reasons are subtle, hidden, and complex, so each group picks their favorite simple enemy to blame. Problems go unfixed. Points in favor of the claim that people are increasingly coming to this realization: 1. This he...