Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions

Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions
February 13, 2025
Predictions of extinction are not like other predictions for at least two reasons: You can’t reason based on track record in the same way you can with normal predictions. The stakes are extremely high. Being wrong on normal predictions rarely matters as much. Why? Regarding point one, reasoning based on track record: Normally, a type of prediction being wrong again and again will...
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Why can’t society agree on who is a “man,” who is a “woman,” and who is neither? An empirical and philosophical investigation into the metaphysics of gender.

February 7, 2025
by Spencer Greenberg Gender is a central part of many people's identities, and yet a very basic and politically contentious question is still being debated: What IS gender? And what defines whether someone is a "man," a "woman," or neither? This question is especially topical and important now in light of the January 20, 2025, Executive Order from Donald Trump attempting to define w...
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The Crud Factor: what’s the average correlation between totally random human traits?

The Crud Factor: what’s the average correlation between totally random human traits?
January 24, 2025
We gathered >1 million human correlations spanning personality, demographics, behaviors, and beliefs, which enabled us to investigate an interesting question: is everything correlated with everything? In other words, is the so-called "crud factor" real? Here's our answer. On average, there is almost no correlation between human variables (see image). The average is only r=0.02, with the median...
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Educators Helping To Improve Rational Thinking

Educators Helping To Improve Rational Thinking
January 24, 2025
I've recently been thinking that there are 4 main categories of educators who are trying to correct bad thinking or help improve rational thinking and that 3 out of 4 of them are essential for improving critical thinking across society (whereas one type is probably harmful): Child education: those who aim to teach children "critical thinking," - which often (but not always) means teaching the...
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The effects of AI on chess

January 5, 2025
It's interesting to observe the effects of AI on chess as a sport. You might expect that since AI defeated Gary Kasparov in 1997, and subsequently, AI became far better than any human player, interest in chess would diminish. But interestingly, there has been a surge in interest over the past 5 years, with more and more people playing and watching it (COVID and the Queen's Gambit get some of the ...
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Is magic “real”?

Is magic “real”?
December 13, 2024
Is magic "real"? No, of course not - but also, yes, absolutely. Some people think that magic exists out there in the world. Many others think that magic doesn't exist at all. I believe that a more accurate view than both is that magic "exists" but only in the specific way that "redness" exists. Before I get into why I believe this, first let me explain what I mean by "magic." I don't ...
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Trusting the science

November 20, 2024
Is it a bad idea to broadly tell people to just "trust the science"? I think so. The reason stems from my thinking that all of the following are important and true (and too often overlooked) regarding science: 1) A lot of science is real AND valuable to society. 2) A lot of "science" is actually fake - see, for instance, a decent percentage of papers in psychology 15 years ago. 3) "Sc...
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Why do people often disagree about what’s immoral?

November 16, 2024
One reason people often disagree about what's immoral is that they have different values. But there's another important reason that I think few are aware of: there are at least four different kinds of moral evaluations of behavior, and it's easy to conflate them. I argue that only one of these categories is actually sufficient grounds for judging an *action* as immoral, despite many people using ...
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At what step do you disagree regarding the ethics of factory farming?

November 9, 2024
At what step do you stop agreeing with this logical argument relating to animals? For each step, I'm also showing the percentage of disagreements on social media that involved this step (either direct disagreements with the step or disagreements with its premise). (There were a total of 63 such disagreements described across my posts on Facebook and X.) Note: any time the argument mentions...
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How do we make our group conversations better?

November 3, 2024
While some group conversations are great (e.g., with close friends), a lot of group conversations are boring, the lowest common denominator, or hijacked by one talkative person. How can you make group conversations more interesting? Here's what I've found to be useful: 1) Shrink the group The best group conversations typically happen (I claim) in groups of 3 to 5. If your group is bigger...
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