These epistemic methods really want you to trust them

These epistemic methods really want you to trust them
November 26, 2020
These epistemic methods really want you to trust them. Each tries to prove itself to you: 1. Tautologies are true by definition, 'cause tautologies are true by definition. 😎 2. Induction worked in the past, so it probably will in the future. 😉 3. If deduction solves your problem, and you want it solved, then you'll want to use deduction! 😊 4. If you thought Bayesianism ...
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Our Human Games: games are everywhere, and they matter more than most people think

Our Human Games: games are everywhere, and they matter more than most people think
November 23, 2020
Games reflect an important part of human psychology. One broad way to think about "games" is that they are any situation that has: (a) a set of rules (explicit or implicit) that are made up by humans, (b) a scoring system (explicit or implicit) for determining how players are doing or for deciding who wins, (c) participants who are trying to increase their "score," and (d) a game cont...
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Could You Be in One of These 8 Psychological Traps?

Could You Be in One of These 8 Psychological Traps?
November 22, 2020
Rarely do we encounter physical traps in our lives; most of the uncomfortable situations that we get stuck in for a long time are Psychological Traps. These are often the product of unrealistic fears, dysfunctional social dynamics, or unhelpful beliefs. Below, we've summarized eight of the most common mental pits that can sidetrack your success and undermine your wellbeing. These Psychological Tr...
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Weird but potentially valuable new roles we could have in our society

Weird but potentially valuable new roles we could have in our society
November 18, 2020
There are certain roles in society that come with special training, powers, and responsibilities. For instance: doctors (can prescribe medicine), lawyers (client-attorney privilege), judges (can bindingly interpret law), etc. Here's my list of some weird but potentially really valuable roles in society that don't exist but maybe should: Role 1: Truth Teller They wear a special, very ...
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Things They Didn’t Say

November 17, 2020
They didn't say these things, but I would have appreciated it if they had: The best way to predict the future is to [combine multiple forecasting methods]. Be the [role model of rationality] you want to see in the world. Believe you can and you’re [<1% of the] way there [, but if you don’t believe you can, then you’ve already lost]. Change your thoughts and you change [...
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Many global challenges arise due to collective action problems or incentive misalignment

Many global challenges arise due to collective action problems or incentive misalignment
November 16, 2020
Many of the biggest challenges that we face in society are due to one or both of these types of problems: (A) Collective Action Problems, where many individuals or groups are currently better off taking action X, even though they'd be better off in the long-term if everyone agreed not to take action X. Some of the big challenges with Collective Actions Problems are (i) gettin...
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Thought Experiments: Very Valuable, But Also Tricky

November 10, 2020
Thought experiments are a great way to understand yourself better, and to make explicit what is normally implicit.  Ex: “If you must choose between letting a random baby or elderly person die, which would you choose?” But thought experiments also suffer from problems: 1. It can be difficult to accurately imagine a world that incorporates the stipulations of the thought experiment. E...
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Don’t Over-Rely On One Type of Evidence

November 8, 2020
Understanding the world well involves synthesizing evidence from disparate sources: 1. Direct experience: if you only believe what you directly witness, you’ll greatly underestimate the diversity of cultures, and literally think the earth is flat. 2. Knowledgeable authority: if you believe whatever your community’s trusted authorities say, then if you were born in a cult you’ll still be in ...
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Ten things we each personally can do to help democracy:

Ten things we each personally can do to help democracy:
November 3, 2020
1. Vote 2. Double check claims before repeating them 3. Don't share articles unless we've read them (i.e., not just because we like a headline) 4. Take a breather before responding when we feel angry (in person and on social media) 5. Remember that groups are purposely trying to feed us appealing disinformation (that exploits our preconceptions and biases), intending to create chaos ...
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What is the deal with IQ?

October 20, 2020
Many studies (including our report) have investigated whether IQ predicts anything. The answer is that it does predict a bunch of things. But what does IQ actually measure? There are a surprisingly large number of proposed answers to this question. Below I list all the different theories and interpretations of IQ that I'm aware of. Theory 1: Multiple Intelligences IQ tests measure just a...
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