Replica Theory

October 27, 2021

Replica Theory is a tiny model I use that makes a lot of accurate predictions about society: When people are in a situation where they're as rewarded for doing an easier, fake version of something as they are for doing the real, valuable version, you'll usually find that most of the activity is fake. There are two types of "fake" activity in the way I'm using the word: (1) Activity that doesn't achieve anything useful at all. Example: a treatment that claims to cure a disease bu...

The ten most important components of self-compassion

October 20, 2021

Self-compassion is an essential skill - it helps us overcome personal hardship, recognize what we want, and learn how to better support others who are struggling. Inspired by Dr. Kristen Neff’s work on this subject, we’ve put together a list of ten components that we think make up a truly self-compassionate mindset. Regardless of whether or not you try to practice self-compassion in your daily life, this list may be valuable next time you’re finding it difficult to be kind towards you...

How do we predict high levels of success?

September 12, 2021

Below, I outline 13 approaches to predicting high levels of success with differing levels of complexity, including my own mega model at the bottom. Note: here, I use the term "success" merely in terms of achievement, career success, or high levels of expertise, NOT in terms of happiness, living a good life, morality, having strong social bonds, etc. There is nothing wrong with not wanting to be successful in the way this post focuses on. But if you DO want "success" in the sense in...

Important (present and future) real-world applications of academic philosophy

August 10, 2021

Many people think that academic philosophy is irrelevant to the real world. But it has increasingly important applications. Here's my list of some of the really interesting ones. Here's hoping philosophers will make further progress on some of these! 1. The Trolley Problem: self-driving cars will be put in situations where there is a choice between sacrificing the passenger to save two pedestrians. Or they might have to choose between killing a 5-year-old pedestrian vs. killing a 70-year-...

What Are All the Things That Humans Need?

July 28, 2021

Below is my attempt to list all human needs ranked according to their typical importance (from most important to least). Thanks for the idea, Maslow! I'm defining a "need" here as something non-replaceable (i.e., you can't just substitute it for something else), which, if substantially unsatisfied, would inhibit well-being for the vast majority of people. You might say that you "need an iced tea" on a hot day, but it could be easily replaceable with lemonade or iced coffee, s...

Three big reasons we struggle to find the truth

June 3, 2021

As I see it, there are three main causes for our struggles to see the truth on any particular topic: 1. Mimicry: when our in-group promotes falsity that we copy 2. Incentives: when we predict that knowing the truth would feel bad or harm our objectives 3. Complexity: when the truth is hard to figure out Examples: 1. Mimicry • Some are Christians because all their friends and family are, too; some are atheists for the same reason. • Some think that it makes sense to ...

Why “nature plus nurture” is sometimes the wrong way to think

April 28, 2021

People who sit here and then chat with someone might get happier…but whether they sit here in the first place probably also depends on their personality and their baseline mood. Photo by Nick Fewings on Unsplash.

It's common to try to explain things as either due to nature OR nurture. Or, at best, we say: some percentage of the variation in outcome is due to genes, and some percentage is due to the environment. It's important to remember, though, that outcomes can be a complex interaction between the two. Consider this: Our genetically-influenced traits impact what environments we seek out and find ourselves in. For instance, risk-taking seems to have moderate heritability, and it in...

Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists

April 23, 2021

There is an important division between people who want to improve the world that few seem to be aware of. Inspired by Julia Galef's new book (The Scout Mindset), I'll call this division: Soldier Altruists vs. Scout Altruists. 1. Soldier Altruists think it's obvious how to improve the world and that we just need to execute those obvious steps. They see the barriers to a better world as: (i) not enough people taking action (e.g., due to ignorance, selfishness, or propaganda), and ...

It can be shockingly hard just to understand three variables

April 19, 2021

In science (and when developing hypotheses more generally), it is very common to come across situations where a variable of interest (let’s call this the dependent variable, “Y”) is strongly correlated with at least two other variables (let’s call them “A” and “B”). Here are some examples: If you’re a psychology researcher investigating possible causes of depression (Y), you may have trouble disentangling the effects of poor sleep quality (A) and anxiety (B), both of which tend to be corre...

What’s helpful and what’s unhelpful about postmodernism, critical theory, and their current intellectual offshoots?

March 29, 2021

More often than not, I find that postmodernist thought obscures rather than illuminates. But I also see useful elements in it. Here's my very un-postmodern attempt to "steel man" (i.e., find the value in) ideas related to postmodernism: 1. Narratives Serve Power - powerful groups do tend to have a substantial influence on narratives, beliefs, and what's "normal." Something "obvious" or "objective" or "a fact" may just (invisibly) be a part of the narrative you're immersed in and sub...