Comments on: Keeping Ideas at a Distance Using Probability

By: Accepting Your Error Rate | Spencer Greenberg

Accepting Your Error Rate | Spencer Greenberg — Tue, 05 Jun 2012 01:18:07 +0000

[…] freed yourself from thinking in terms of true and false dichotomies, and made the effort to convert your beliefs to probabilities or degrees of belief, you’ll still be wrong by way of assigning high probabilities to false […]

By: Grognor

Grognor — Mon, 05 Dec 2011 20:33:22 +0000

A useful tool for figuring out exactly how sure you really are is PredictionBook:

http://predictionbook.com/

By: Alex F

Alex F — Tue, 16 Aug 2011 12:07:47 +0000

Awesome article 🙂

I like how you combine the psychological principle of mans natural tendancy to strive for “consistency of beliefs” (ie. Once someone publicly announces something, they are significantly more likely to defend that belief whether they fully feel that way or not thus deeping their convictions) with expected value.

Something fun… Understanding this principle can be helpful when trying to persuade someone of a certain viewpoint….. Think along the lines of classical conditioning / association 🙂

By: Rex Ryan

Rex Ryan — Sun, 14 Aug 2011 23:42:49 +0000

I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was good. I do not know who you are but certainly you are going to a famous blogger if you are not already 😉 Cheers!

By: john

john — Thu, 11 Aug 2011 20:38:08 +0000

I’ve found these self-questions useful when trying to make disciplined poker decisions–for both avoiding impatient mistakes and for overcoming fear in making aggressive and risky actions.