If you try to enumerate all of the things that you know with absolute, 100% certainty, you will find that the list is very small.
You know that “something” exists.
If you have mental experiences, then you know that “you” exist (though coming up with a reasonable definition for what “you” means can be remarkably tricky).
If your mental experiences are varied, then you know that whatever exists creates varied mental experiences.
With some cleverness, you may be able to add to this list ...
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forecasting
Predicting Using the Past
When we try to predict how long a task will take, we are in danger of falling prey to the planning fallacy. This is the natural human tendency to underestimate how long your own projects will take and the costs involved.
To give one of many possible examples, when a group of students were asked to estimate how long their senior theses would take if everything went as poorly as it possibly could, the average estimate was about 49 days. In fact, the average time it took the students to complete t...
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