What happens when your beliefs can’t change?

August 13, 2024

This is part 2 in my series about "anchor beliefs" - but you don't need to read part 1 in order to understand it. I think that almost everyone has beliefs that are essentially unchangeable. These don't feel to us like beliefs but like incontrovertible truths. Counter-evidence can't touch them. They are beliefs we can't change our mind about. I call these "Anchor Beliefs." When Anchor Beliefs are false, we distort reality to fit them. So, what distortions do some reasonably common Anchor B...

Companies shirking their responsibility to make AI text detectable

August 4, 2024

It's really a shame that OpenAI hasn't deployed its technology for detecting whether text was generated using ChatGPT, despite it being developed 2 years ago. They know students are currently using their technology to cheat at a truly massive scale. And teachers struggle to know what to do about it. OpenAI's inaction damages the academic environment - especially for the non-cheating students, but even for the cheaters, too. You've got to prove you can be trusted to do the right thing in s...

Understanding the Landscape of Viewpoints on the Risks and Benefits of AI

July 27, 2024

I've seen seven main viewpoints on AI and the future from those who spend a lot of time thinking about it: (1) Superintelligence Doomers - they believe we are likely to build AI that's superintelligent (i.e., that surpasses human intelligence in all respects) and that once we do, it will kill or enslave humanity. See: Eliezer Yudkowsky "The AI does not hate you, nor does it love you, but you are made of atoms which it can use for something else." (2) AI Corrosionists - t...

Merlin: a tribute to a cat I love

July 12, 2024

Merlin was cradled in Julie's arms like a baby while I gently stroked his head and whiskers. I had figured out (through 6 years of trial and error) the way he most enjoyed it. An hour went by this way, and my shoulder ached from the repetitive motion of stroking, but I kept at it because I knew he liked it. He even started to purr. We knew that, at any time, we could push the button on the wall. Then the doctor would enter the room, take out her syringes, and end the life of this cat that ...

Always Conduct the “Simplest Valid Analysis”

July 10, 2024

This piece was cross-posted on the Transprent Replications blog. A significant and pretty common problem I see when reading papers in social science (and psychology in particular) is that they present a fancy analysis but don’t show the results of what we have named the “Simplest Valid Analysis” – which is the simplest possible way of analyzing the data that is still a valid test of the hypothesis in question. This creates two potentially serious problems that make me less confident in th...

Are happiness and well-being the only things that people value?

June 5, 2024

The most common kind of critiques I get of my theory of human intrinsic values are: 1) "But I only care about well-being (in the sense of happiness, pleasure, or lack of suffering) - that's my ONLY intrinsic value." 2) "People may THINK they value other things, but everything that matters bottoms out in well-being." Here's my response: First of all, I want to say that I really appreciate thoughtful criticism of my work. It helps me see the truth more clearly and improve my ideas...

How can big problems get solved?

May 5, 2024

I think that big problems in the world (like chronic homelessness, loneliness, depression, poverty, underrepresentation of groups, risks from A.I., global warming, etc.) are ridiculously complex - way more complex than the narratives about them suggest. The only approach I know of that I think has a meaningful shot to help solve such huge problems, which you might call “Scientific Entrepreneurship,” combines two methods into one: (1) Rigorous science to deeply understand the causal struct...

How to spot real expertise

April 23, 2024

Thanks go to Travis (from the Clearer Thinking team) for coauthoring this with me. This is a cross-post from Clearer Thinking. How can you tell who is a valid expert, and who is full of B.S.? On almost any topic of importance you can find a mix of valid experts (who are giving you reliable information) and false but confident-seeming "experts" (who are giving you misinformation). To make matters even more confusing, sometimes the fake experts even have very impressive credentials, and ev...

Three motivations for believing

April 20, 2024

There are three different motivations for belief, and it's important to distinguish between them. 1) Belief because you think something's true. For instance, you may think that the evidence supports the idea that you will eventually find love, or you may feel convinced by logical arguments you've heard in favor of god's existence. 2) Belief because you think it's useful to believe. Regardless of whether you predict something's true, you can predict that believing it will...

The benefits and soul-crushing downsides of A.I. progress

April 11, 2024

There are many benefits to A.I., such as being able to generate beautiful art, inspiring music, captivating writing, and mesmerizing videos. It democratizes creation (people can now create what’s in their minds), lowers costs (replacing human labor with algorithms), and enables hyper-personalization (works can be made just for you). The benefits are big and important. But there is also something soul-crushing about it. People spend decades learning a craft and then see an A.I. make something...